In the aftermath of Albertgeddon fans have been reacting with all the emotional aplomb that one would expect when a team loses an icon. There hasn't been much in way of logical thinking. Sadly, the reaction from the blogosphere from guys that are supposed to more objective has been just as reactionary. People are all bitter anger right now. Mostly they are saying he is a sellout and that he just ran for the money, or, they just respond with a "we didn't need him anyway." The truth is most of the people that are judging him have not been following the behind the scenes machinations that led to this situation. This was not something that came about his recently, its been two years in the making, and honestly, all signs pointed to Albert leaving.
Firstly, to clear up a few things, Albert is a bit surly. A very good human being that is incredibly selfless in a lot of ways, a great cheerleader for his team, a great family man, and really, a decent human being. There aren't many people that can say that, but the fact is he is really just sort of a reserved introverted personality type off the baseball field. He has had a tumultuous time with the media in St. Louis, bu frankly, he has handled the somewhat antagonistic media in St. Louis (i.e. Joe Strauss, Bernie Miklasz) much better than I ever would. None of this should detract from the fact he does more humanitarian actions a year than most players do in a career. All of that being said, that means his interactions with people have not been all sugar and spice. Particularly, his relationship with the front office, particularly with Mozeliak, (Mo) has been degrading at a steady pace. Mo is also kind of a jerk, actually, he is a complete jerk, and he has been trying to increase his day to day control over the team. That was mitigated by the fact that Tony Larussa was the manager and nobody meddles with him without getting an earful. But Tony retired, and Mo got to handpick his staff. This would give him much more control over day to day baseball operations. I think this factored heavily into Albert's decision to move on.
Secondly, Albert was hurt, and I really do mean hurt, (Joe Strauss mentioned that it seemed truly genuine. As he is a hardass cynic, it means a lot coming from him) by the offer the Cardinals made before the season. There is no question that that offer was not remotely a fair offer. It wasn't even a fair offer with him giving the hometown discount. It was, frankly, a bit of a slap in the face to him. A credit to Pujols is that where as a lot of players would have let this bother him, he just shut up and played.
Thirdly, Pujols (and Deidre, she had a lot of influence on his decision) Pujols wanted ten years on the contract more than he wanted the money. That was something he just really cared about, as well as a no-trade clause. Also, he wanted a personal service contract on top of it. Mo refused to bend on any of this. They could have resigned him. Honestly, the could have easily resigned him. I cannot be convinced that a personal service contract with a team icon is an onerous demand. My conclusion from all of the evidence is this. The Cardinals DID NOT WANT PUJOLS BACK.
I am sure some of you are saying, "Why Justin, why would you say a thing like that?" Well, since you asked, I will tell you why. There are several factors that kept the Cardinals from getting him. The first of these is that they don't need to pay a contract in any where near the range Pujols DESERVED. Those type of contracts, for any player, really on belong on teams that can field upwards of a 150 mil payroll. The Cardinals, as of yet, cannot field a payroll that high. It would hamstring financial to the point where it would be hard for them to be competitive at times. And here are some more harsh facts. Albert is looking like he is an old 31. No, I am not saying he is older than 31, just that his body has been through a lot. The past 4 seasons he has looked like he is walking on glass. His legs aren't healthy, and that is not likely to change over a ten year contract. Its a miracle that his right elbow hasn't already blown out as the ligament there is as thin as my savings account. He has played 11 seasons and rarely missed any games. That is a lot of wear and tear on his body. I thoroughly believe that a body has an odometer, and it can only play so many games, regardless of their age and he has not only played a lot games, and a ton more playoff games, but he runs the bases like his hair is on fire and plays hard everyday. He plays through all of this injuries, and in the long run, I think that will shorten his career. Over ten years, he will break down, and there is absolutely no chance that he will be the same player he is now over the last 4 seasons of that contract. The Cardinals new, and the Angels know, they are getting probably six good seasons out of Pujols, anything over than that is a bonus. The Cardinals just weren't willing to do that.
Of course this is mostly speculation, but logically that is how it will go. Maybe Pujols will have a career in Anaheim to match that in St. Louis, MVP's, batting titles, gold gloves, and multiple world series appearances, but betting on that is an enormous gamble, the Cardinals just weren't willing to make that gamble. And that was the right call.
This was a situation where Albert both absolutely deserves to get paid, and it was absolutely a bad idea to do it. I for one, wish the best to Albert, it has been a pleasure to watch him play this years. But now I am excited to see in what direction the Cardinals are going. It is not like they have a bad team, Albert actually was their third best offensive player last season, and they are going to be just fine. In fact, I think they will win the division, and have a better chance of winning than they did in 2011.
On a side note, I have no problem with players getting paid. They earn it. They work hard. They work harder than anybody not a ball player could possibly imagine. They work harder in one year than I have worked in grad school plus law school. They earn there money and pay for it the rest of their lives with pain. If someone is offering the money its ridiculous to ridicule the player for taking it. And those of you who say the old days were different, then I want to know which era you are talking about. Read the biographies, the players going back to 1900 have always been concerned with their earnings, as they should be. Its a business, it always has been. We love capitalism, but if you are ballplayer, suddenly we don't love it. I don't begrudge then. Albert gets more money for his charities, and more money to secure his children and grand children are taken care of. I can't fault anyone, particularly a someone who gives back, for that.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Tony Larussa's Baseball Obituary Part 1
I had been working on a big long blog post during the entirety of the playoffs and had planned on posting it after the World Series. However, the retiring of Tony LaRussa kind of made my finishing remarks on that flit right out of my mind and instead here I am writing a post about him and his retirement. Honestly, his retirement should not come as any surprise really. He has been waffling on the edge of retirement since the 2006 championship. I think each year it just seemed like a year that he didn't want to end on since then. 2007 was a year with a subpar team and a non-playoff finish. 2008 was a frustrating year where they finished outside the playoffs and he spent the last part of the year pressing for improvement to the bullpen, Mo held part and Tony saw lots of cheap relievers trade teams, any one of which literally might have got them in the playoffs. 2009 was a year Mo made big moves, yet they flopped in the first round of the playoffs while being a favorite. 2010 was a disappointing year, finishing five back from the Reds, while Tony spent all year trying to jumpstart an anemic offense and piece together a rotation that was really only 2.5 pitchers deep. But 2011, that is a different story altogether. 2011 was a year any manager in baseball history could retire after and be proud. Truthfully it appears TLR has been telling management this could be it since August, but frankly, I don't know how much that means. He is apparently been doing the same thing each August for the last few years. It just so happens that this time he meant it. It, however, should have been obvious that this might have been the year for him to call it quits from the way he managed the games. I had commented several times through the last month of the season and on into the post-season that TLR was managing a bit different than he normally does. He, as I like to use this as a metaphor quite often, was managing ball games like his hair was on fire. More aptly, he was managing every game like it was his last. This all makes sense now, he was managing every game like it was the last season he was ever going to manage.
While I am sitting here it occurs to me that the things I am going to write seem more like I am writing an obituary than anything else. I guess that is somewhat true, its the end of a Hall of Fame career, and a Hall of Fame career that has changed the very fabric of how baseball is played more than any other manager since John McGraw, and perhaps ever. This is not hyperbole, this is just simple baseball fact, just most don't realize it. TLR has always been different from other baseball people. He has a degree in Industrial Engineering. He also has a law degree from Florida State University and in fact he took and passed the BAR in the state of Florida. Which leads to a great quote from Dick Williams. When hearing that TLR had passed the BAR he responded, "unlike Larussa, I would never pass a bar." TLR is also a vegetarian, and spends most of his free time working with he charity, ARF. (Animal Rescue Foundation) He is just not like most old school baseball men. Can you imagine many ball players touting their vegetarian nature? Prince Fielder notwithstanding anyway, I have my doubts about the validity of that. The point of all this is that Larussa is a thinker, and has always been a thinker. He thinks about baseball the way academics obsess over their respective fields. That is not to say he is always right, he wasn't, but he was always, always thinking.
What most people don't realize about Larussa is how much he changed that game, and not for the better in some peoples estimation. Before Larussa, there was really no such thing as a one inning "closer." He took an older somewhat washed up starter named Dennis Eckersley and proclaimed that he would pitch only one inning at a time and only the 9th inning when his team had the lead. This was pretty crazy thinking at the time. There were closers or "stoppers" at the time, but they were used very differently. They were often used to close out all close games, and even a lot of games that weren't close. They were also used for two innings pretty often. The idea of setting aside a reliever purely for this specific purpose was pretty extreme. Of course, Eck went on to win a Cy Young and MVP award and now pretty much every team in baseball uses a closer in that fashion. Perhaps a bit ironically, St. Louis did not use a closer in this manner for the bulk of 2011. Larussa went on to expand on this concept. He began keeping a lefty specialist in his bullpen. A left hander that only pitched to the opposing teams best left handers late in the game. He used this to great effect with guys such as Rick Honeycutt and Tony Fossas. He then started using guys that tended to pitch only to righthanders. He is, for better or worse, the man who started the trend for games to last 3 and a half hours nightly. He began playing the matchups in an obsessive desire to always get the right pitcher facing the right hitter and he didn't care if he got the last six outs while using six different pitchers. Once again, for better or worse, this habits, although not to his extreme generally, permeated the way baseball operated in the late innings.
While I am sitting here it occurs to me that the things I am going to write seem more like I am writing an obituary than anything else. I guess that is somewhat true, its the end of a Hall of Fame career, and a Hall of Fame career that has changed the very fabric of how baseball is played more than any other manager since John McGraw, and perhaps ever. This is not hyperbole, this is just simple baseball fact, just most don't realize it. TLR has always been different from other baseball people. He has a degree in Industrial Engineering. He also has a law degree from Florida State University and in fact he took and passed the BAR in the state of Florida. Which leads to a great quote from Dick Williams. When hearing that TLR had passed the BAR he responded, "unlike Larussa, I would never pass a bar." TLR is also a vegetarian, and spends most of his free time working with he charity, ARF. (Animal Rescue Foundation) He is just not like most old school baseball men. Can you imagine many ball players touting their vegetarian nature? Prince Fielder notwithstanding anyway, I have my doubts about the validity of that. The point of all this is that Larussa is a thinker, and has always been a thinker. He thinks about baseball the way academics obsess over their respective fields. That is not to say he is always right, he wasn't, but he was always, always thinking.
What most people don't realize about Larussa is how much he changed that game, and not for the better in some peoples estimation. Before Larussa, there was really no such thing as a one inning "closer." He took an older somewhat washed up starter named Dennis Eckersley and proclaimed that he would pitch only one inning at a time and only the 9th inning when his team had the lead. This was pretty crazy thinking at the time. There were closers or "stoppers" at the time, but they were used very differently. They were often used to close out all close games, and even a lot of games that weren't close. They were also used for two innings pretty often. The idea of setting aside a reliever purely for this specific purpose was pretty extreme. Of course, Eck went on to win a Cy Young and MVP award and now pretty much every team in baseball uses a closer in that fashion. Perhaps a bit ironically, St. Louis did not use a closer in this manner for the bulk of 2011. Larussa went on to expand on this concept. He began keeping a lefty specialist in his bullpen. A left hander that only pitched to the opposing teams best left handers late in the game. He used this to great effect with guys such as Rick Honeycutt and Tony Fossas. He then started using guys that tended to pitch only to righthanders. He is, for better or worse, the man who started the trend for games to last 3 and a half hours nightly. He began playing the matchups in an obsessive desire to always get the right pitcher facing the right hitter and he didn't care if he got the last six outs while using six different pitchers. Once again, for better or worse, this habits, although not to his extreme generally, permeated the way baseball operated in the late innings.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Mid-Season Review: Part 1 Injuries, Injuries, Injuries...What we're tied for first?
I thought I would throw a little hodpodge blog together reviewing the Cardinal's season so far since we have reached the All-Star break. A bit of a mid-season report card.
The Swapping of the Ryan's
Most of you that follow the Cardinal's realize that the Cardinals traded Brendan Ryan away and traded for Ryan Theriot over the offseason. There were many reasons for this move, which I will get to in a second, but first an assessment on whether it was an improvement purely on the stat sheet. Basically, what you get with the Ryan for Theriot swap is you trade out Ryan's fantastic defense for an upgrade with Theriot's offense. The problem is its a HUGE difference defensively and only a minor upgrade offensively. On defense, according to fangraphs.com UZR/150 stat (by far my favorite defensive metric) Theriot is pretty terrible. This of course is not a surprise. He has made quite a few big errors, and just watching the guy with the naked eye its pretty obvious he just isn't that good with the glove. He UZR/150 is -9.1. On the other side you have Brendan Ryan who is just as much positive as Theriot is negative with a +9.2. That's actually a little less than what he normally puts up, but still proves that Ryan really is a top notch defensive shortstop. All in all, Theriot is only barely showing up with 0.3 WAR (wins above replacement player) while Brendan Ryan is rocking a WAR of 1.5. This is a pretty definitive metric for this sort of comparison. Brendan Ryan is clearly a better player on the field than Ryan Theriot this year, and from a stats sheet point of view its been a bit of a failure. But is it really a failure? Brendan Ryan, to put it bluntly, was traded because he is a jerk. Not really a Barry Bonds/Manny Ramirez jerk, just a guy that never really aged past 14 kind of jerk. He was incredibly hyper, flighty, and generally grated on the nerves of all of his pitchers, and more importantly the manager and coaching staff. Essentially he was really bad for the clubhouse, so they decided to move him on, despite being a tremendous defensive talent. Theriot on the other hand, is loved in the clubhouse. He is funny, and although a scrappy player, helps keep it loose. A problem the stoic, businesslike Cardinals of last year had a problem with. Overall, despite the differences on the stats, the Cardinals are still doing better at short this year compared to last. They can always bring in Punto as a defensive replacement. That guy can really pick it.
The Puma Prance
There were a lot of questions about whether the Cardinals signing of Lance Berkman would work out for them. Now the only bad thing is they only signed him for one year. Berkman was voted an All-Star starter this year and in some weeks of the young season he alone kept the Cardinals offense afloat. He is having a pretty monster campaign so far. .290 .404 .602 gets the job done for any team in baseball and the Cardinals are lucky to have him. His decision to sign with the Cardinals hasn't been without controversy on his part as well. The Houston fans were not particularly gracious about the fact he signed with their biggest rival. (To Houston fans minds anyway, although Cardinals fans generally don't share that sentiment) And Bitter Milo Hamilton stirred up a pot of ill will when Berkman made his first appearance at Minute Maid this year. (Bitter should officially become a part of his name) Through it all Berkman held himself as a classy professional and the Cardinals are lucky to have Berkman this year, not only on the field, but in the clubhouse as well.
That big hole in the lineup where ever Rasmus is Batting
Rasmus has been terrible this year at the plate. Oh, his number look average, but that is only because he got off to a hot start. In his last 200 bats he has been putrid, smelly, foul, an easy out, lost at the plate, and a complete waste of carbon. Not only that, he is STILL playing a terrible centerfield. His uzr/150 is a -10, plus just watching him play, he just isn't a good fielder. He makes a lot of simple mistakes, and never learns from them. I won't beat around the bush, I am NOT a fan of Colby Rasmus. I thought they should have traded him during the offseason when he had his maximum trade value before it started to diminish. The problem with Rasmus is probably mostly in his head. He has the tools to be a great player, the question is does he have the brain. Right now, even with the immense potential he just isn't worth the trouble. He is dependent on his father, Tony Rasmus, to be his "hitting coach" and he has caused a lot of trouble with the team by bad mouthing and saying stuff to the media that he shouldn't. At the end of the day you have a grown man that is apparently not a hard worker, not mature, dependent on his father, and honestly, just not a very bright person. If Rasmus wants to succeed for the Cardinals its time for him to grow up and cut the training wheels off, or its time to send him down or trade him, and let John Jay have a chance. (Although despite what a lot of fans think, he is not a significantly better hitter or fielder)
The Swapping of the Ryan's
Most of you that follow the Cardinal's realize that the Cardinals traded Brendan Ryan away and traded for Ryan Theriot over the offseason. There were many reasons for this move, which I will get to in a second, but first an assessment on whether it was an improvement purely on the stat sheet. Basically, what you get with the Ryan for Theriot swap is you trade out Ryan's fantastic defense for an upgrade with Theriot's offense. The problem is its a HUGE difference defensively and only a minor upgrade offensively. On defense, according to fangraphs.com UZR/150 stat (by far my favorite defensive metric) Theriot is pretty terrible. This of course is not a surprise. He has made quite a few big errors, and just watching the guy with the naked eye its pretty obvious he just isn't that good with the glove. He UZR/150 is -9.1. On the other side you have Brendan Ryan who is just as much positive as Theriot is negative with a +9.2. That's actually a little less than what he normally puts up, but still proves that Ryan really is a top notch defensive shortstop. All in all, Theriot is only barely showing up with 0.3 WAR (wins above replacement player) while Brendan Ryan is rocking a WAR of 1.5. This is a pretty definitive metric for this sort of comparison. Brendan Ryan is clearly a better player on the field than Ryan Theriot this year, and from a stats sheet point of view its been a bit of a failure. But is it really a failure? Brendan Ryan, to put it bluntly, was traded because he is a jerk. Not really a Barry Bonds/Manny Ramirez jerk, just a guy that never really aged past 14 kind of jerk. He was incredibly hyper, flighty, and generally grated on the nerves of all of his pitchers, and more importantly the manager and coaching staff. Essentially he was really bad for the clubhouse, so they decided to move him on, despite being a tremendous defensive talent. Theriot on the other hand, is loved in the clubhouse. He is funny, and although a scrappy player, helps keep it loose. A problem the stoic, businesslike Cardinals of last year had a problem with. Overall, despite the differences on the stats, the Cardinals are still doing better at short this year compared to last. They can always bring in Punto as a defensive replacement. That guy can really pick it.
The Puma Prance
There were a lot of questions about whether the Cardinals signing of Lance Berkman would work out for them. Now the only bad thing is they only signed him for one year. Berkman was voted an All-Star starter this year and in some weeks of the young season he alone kept the Cardinals offense afloat. He is having a pretty monster campaign so far. .290 .404 .602 gets the job done for any team in baseball and the Cardinals are lucky to have him. His decision to sign with the Cardinals hasn't been without controversy on his part as well. The Houston fans were not particularly gracious about the fact he signed with their biggest rival. (To Houston fans minds anyway, although Cardinals fans generally don't share that sentiment) And Bitter Milo Hamilton stirred up a pot of ill will when Berkman made his first appearance at Minute Maid this year. (Bitter should officially become a part of his name) Through it all Berkman held himself as a classy professional and the Cardinals are lucky to have Berkman this year, not only on the field, but in the clubhouse as well.
That big hole in the lineup where ever Rasmus is Batting
Rasmus has been terrible this year at the plate. Oh, his number look average, but that is only because he got off to a hot start. In his last 200 bats he has been putrid, smelly, foul, an easy out, lost at the plate, and a complete waste of carbon. Not only that, he is STILL playing a terrible centerfield. His uzr/150 is a -10, plus just watching him play, he just isn't a good fielder. He makes a lot of simple mistakes, and never learns from them. I won't beat around the bush, I am NOT a fan of Colby Rasmus. I thought they should have traded him during the offseason when he had his maximum trade value before it started to diminish. The problem with Rasmus is probably mostly in his head. He has the tools to be a great player, the question is does he have the brain. Right now, even with the immense potential he just isn't worth the trouble. He is dependent on his father, Tony Rasmus, to be his "hitting coach" and he has caused a lot of trouble with the team by bad mouthing and saying stuff to the media that he shouldn't. At the end of the day you have a grown man that is apparently not a hard worker, not mature, dependent on his father, and honestly, just not a very bright person. If Rasmus wants to succeed for the Cardinals its time for him to grow up and cut the training wheels off, or its time to send him down or trade him, and let John Jay have a chance. (Although despite what a lot of fans think, he is not a significantly better hitter or fielder)
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
The End of the Brendan Ryan Era.
The biggest concern after the 2010 season was discovering why the Cardinals underperformed for the talent level. They have a history of getting the most out of players, not of having seasons where their record is lower than the what the sum of their parts says it should be. It seems that the front office decided that a big part of it was clubhouse chemistry, and I tend to agree. The Cardinals are, for lack of a better word, a very business like team. They are very intense. They don't have many guys that bring levity to the season. They are all very stoic, workmanlike and just go about their business. Brendan Ryan was just not good in the clubhouse. He just never really grew up. He routinely made mental mistakes, and his personality is the type that just grates on the nerves. The organization gave him a chance, and I am sure, given that it was talked about in the media, was made aware that he needed to calm down. It was just time for him to move on and he might very well thrive with a new team, but St. Louis was not the place for him. He is a top flight defensive shortstop. One of the best, if not THE best in baseball. This should give some idea of how much of a distraction he was in the clubhouse if a team that values defense the way the Cardinals do were willing to move him for next to nothing. The signings and trades they have made this offseason show that the clubhouse chemistry was an issue. They go out and make a trade for Ryan Theriot, who is a definite downgrade defensively at short, but is known as being a great clubhouse guy. Then they sign Lance Berkman, even though he really wasn't a great fit, and lo and behold, he is another that is known as a great clubhouse guy. The kind of guy that can keep a team loose in August. This also of course, seems to create an issue in the outfield. The Cardinals seemed to be pretty sure they were willing to give Jon Jay a shot in the outfield. This seems to make him the 4th outfielder. Maybe the Berkman signing was a indicator that maybe the Cardinals other biggest clubhouse issue with be traded as well, Colby Rasmus. Good Luck to Brendan Ryan, I hope this situation will be a wake up call that will allow you to make the changes you need to, to become an everyday shortstop in the Major Leagues.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Good Riddance Joe Morgan
So many people that are fans of baseball are jumping for joy at the moment. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN potentially will no longer be unwatchable, rather, unlistenable. Joe Morgan and Jon Miller will no longer be doing the broadcasts. This is sad in one respect because Miller is truly a fantastic announcer. I love listening to his radio broadcasts. However, if you combine all the Hall of Fame goodness of all the Hall of Fame announcers you still couldn't counteract Joe Morgan. Honestly, I have never understood why he had a job in the first place. I have never known an announcer that was so universally hated by his viewing audience. In fact, I don't know of a single knowledgeable baseball fan that could tolerate 5 minutes of listening to that man. Why is Morgan so frustrating? Well, for a variety of reasons, but mostly because he is a pompous prig. Joe Morgan is giving a lot of credit nowadays as possibly being the greatest second basemen of all time. He is at least in most people top 5 easily. Why is this? Because he is one of the better percentage players of all time. He was always considered a good player, and a Hall of Famer, but nobody was ever saying he belonged anywhere in the same conversation with Lajoie, Hornsby, Gehringer, Collins, or heck, even maybe guys like Joe Gordon. But thanks, largely impart to Bill James and his sabermetrics, ok almost SOLELY because of Bill James and his sabermetrics, Joe Morgan is recognized as one of the greatest of all time. What makes this frustrating is Morgan is so disdainful of stats PERIOD, that it makes me want to slap him upside the head. He hates sabermetrics, becoming antagonistic anytime anybody tries to use them to determine the quality of a player. This was a conversation that happened once while I was watching. A guest was in the booth with them (I forget whom) and he used a state to show that a player was lacking some particular ability. And Morgan responded, “I don't need the stats, I don't need the stats to show me that he is a good player. I played the game and I can tell from watching that he is a good player, because I played the game. Did you play the game?” This is a typical response from Morgan, when anybody implies that he might now something about the game he just tells them over and over that “I played the game.” He basically acts like that because he played that means whatever he says is ALWAYS right over someone who didn't play the game. Even though he benefited greatly from Bill James he adamantly spoke out against the book in a very derogatory manner. “Why would I wanna read the book? All I'm saying is, I see a game every day. I watch baseball every day. I have a better understanding about why things happen than the computer.” A very typical Joe Morgan quote. Bill James perhaps knew how big a jerk Morgan would be about the book, which is why he included that rather hilarious letter to him in it. All I can say Joe, is that Bill James pegged you right on, and frankly the baseball world is much happier that your ego will no longer be stroked as a broadcaster, giving you the facade that people actually want to hear what you have to say. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.
Monday, September 27, 2010
And the 2010 NL MVP is.....
I am not going to say I know who the National League MVP should be, but I know who it shouldn't be, Carlos Gonzalez. We have seen this type of thing before, most recently in 2007 when Matt Holliday and Jimmy Rollins were the frontrunners for the MVP. That year Holliday was hurt tremendously by the huge difference in his home/away splits. This is a big deal when you play your home games in Coors field.
Gonzalez is a fine player, but when you look at his splits it just kind of stuns the mind. Carlos Gonzalez isn't anything more than an average player on the road. His percentage numbers are:
.293 BA .327 OBP and a .459 SLG, that rounds out to a very mediocre .786 OPS.
A serviceable player no doubt, but nothing that even comes close to making you think MVP. His numbers at home are something completely different, something of Ruthian proportions. His percentage numbers at home are :
.388 BA. .434 OBP and a .752 SLG for a 1.186 OPS.
Those numbers are ridiculous, steroid era type numbers. Voters look at this, they understand that parks play a huge part in stats now, and Coors is public enemy number one for that. When the split difference is that large, it really hurts the player because his stats basically say that he only crushes the ball in the thin air, anywhere else and he is just average. This is different than when Larry Walker was around. Larry Walker had a big split as well, but he was generally All-Star caliber even with his road numbers. Carlos Gonzalez is not, he isn't even good.
He also gets some pub as a good defensive player, and its true he has made some great catches. But great catches do not make a great defensive player. (cough, cough Gary Mathews Jr.) He posts a negative UZR at both Centerfield and Right Field. He is really just an average outfielder.
Carlos Gonzalez is a good player, and probably will be good for many years, BUT he is not an MVP type player, he is just elevating the ball and riding the Coors affect.
Gonzalez is a fine player, but when you look at his splits it just kind of stuns the mind. Carlos Gonzalez isn't anything more than an average player on the road. His percentage numbers are:
.293 BA .327 OBP and a .459 SLG, that rounds out to a very mediocre .786 OPS.
A serviceable player no doubt, but nothing that even comes close to making you think MVP. His numbers at home are something completely different, something of Ruthian proportions. His percentage numbers at home are :
.388 BA. .434 OBP and a .752 SLG for a 1.186 OPS.
Those numbers are ridiculous, steroid era type numbers. Voters look at this, they understand that parks play a huge part in stats now, and Coors is public enemy number one for that. When the split difference is that large, it really hurts the player because his stats basically say that he only crushes the ball in the thin air, anywhere else and he is just average. This is different than when Larry Walker was around. Larry Walker had a big split as well, but he was generally All-Star caliber even with his road numbers. Carlos Gonzalez is not, he isn't even good.
He also gets some pub as a good defensive player, and its true he has made some great catches. But great catches do not make a great defensive player. (cough, cough Gary Mathews Jr.) He posts a negative UZR at both Centerfield and Right Field. He is really just an average outfielder.
Carlos Gonzalez is a good player, and probably will be good for many years, BUT he is not an MVP type player, he is just elevating the ball and riding the Coors affect.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Do the Cardinals want to win? Of course they do.
I saw a journalist today entitling an article "Do the Cardinals want to win?" Immediately I was struck by how dumb a question this is. With few exceptions people with a enough drive and determination to go through what it takes to make the Major Leagues are never going to give up if have a chance to make it to the playoffs. Yes, there are some exceptions to this. Those guys that are so amazingly gifted that they never have to work and are handed everything on a silver platter. But generally, even guys that are selfish players generally want to win if put in a position to be in the playoffs. There are exceptions to the rule of course, but nary enough of them to merit asking the question if an entire team wants to win. The Cardinals problems are not because they don't want to win. They are an intense to with an intense manager, a lack of desire to win is just not the problem. However, there are a few things that ARE a problem.
First lets actually consider the issue of talent. Perhaps its best to look at this in a position by position break down.
Catcher
STL- Yadier Molina
CIN- Ryan Hannigan, Ramon Hernandez
WIN- CINCY
Yadier is unquestionably the best and toughest defensive catcher around. He can absolutely control the running game, but he is having a terrible year at the plate. Hannigan can also really throw, but this duo is also knocking the ball already quite successfully. If this was last year, Yadier wins this, but as much as I respect Yadier, he is just to banged up and tired to be much of a hitter.
First Base
Stl- Albert the Great
Cincy- Joey Votto
WIN- STL
Albert is going to win this, no matter who is going against him. But frankly, at this point your basically comparing the two best hitters in the National League, and it says a lot about Votto that this is a close match. You gotta be proud of yourself when your numbers are just as good as Alberts.
Second Base
Stl- Skippy Schumaker
Cincy- Brandon Phillips
WIN- CINCY
This isn't really even close. Brandon Phillips is clearly a better player than Skippy, even though he is a jerk, and bad in the clubhouse. Phillips is an excellent defender and has an .801 OPS compared to Skippy's .680 OPS and suspect D.
Shortstop
Stl- Brendan Ryan
Cincy- Orlando Cabrera
WIN-TIE
This one really is a toss up. Brendan Ryan is a terrible hitter right now, but Orlando Cabrera is really just a ton better. He is better, but he is still pretty bad overall. However, they are both good defensive shortstops, although I suspect Cabrera's resurgence in the numbers is somewhat due to Rolen being next to him. Even with that resurgence, Cabrera's UZR is an 8 and Ryan's is a 15. Ryan is truly an elite defensive shortstop, even though he is kind of annoying twit. His defensive value is enough that it makes it at least a tie.
Third Base
STL- Pedro Feliz, I guess.
Cincy- Scott Rolen
WIN- CINCY
Scott Rolen hands down. One of the greatest defensive third basemen of all time and he is having a good year with the stick as well, where as the Cardinals are so weak at third that they improved at the position by trading for the worst regular position player in the National League.
Rightfield
Stl- John Jay
Cincy-Jay Bruce
WIN-Cincy
Jay Bruce is not my kind of player, but he has big time power and a silly good arm. But honestly, if John Jay had more at bats, he would actually win this category. He just has a limited sample, and more than likely pitchers are going to figure him out a bit. However, he is a smart kid that is willing to adjust to what is needed in the game. Frankly, I like him better than Colby Rasmus.
Centerfielder
Stl- Colby Rasmus
Cincy- Drew Stubbs
WIN-STL
I don't really like either of these players. Both are high draft picks, both are incredibly questionable defensively in center field, a both are playing beneath what they were projected to. Both make lots of rookie mistakes and come up empty against good pitching more often than not. However, Colby Rasmus is having a better year than Stubbs, therefore he wins this category.
Leftfield
STL- Matt Holliday
Cincy-Johnny Gomes
WIN- STL
Gomes can absolutely crush a fastball as hard and as fast as anybody in baseball. Of course he doesn't do so well with breaking balls, so of course he doesn't get many of those fastballs to crush. Holliday is an all-star type hitter and he wins this category pretty handedly.
Starting Pitching
STL- Waino, Carp, Garcia, Westbrook, and Lohse.
Cincy-Arroyo, Harang, Leake, Cueto
WIN- STL
The Cardinals legitimately have one of the best starting staffs in baseball, top 4 at the very least. That’s even with throwing a bag of peanuts every fifth day. Cincy has some serviceable guys, but they just don’t have the same kind of shutdownness. Of course that doesn't matter if your offense doesn't score any runs.
Bullpen
Win-CINCY
The numbers show that the Cardinals bullpen is better than Cincy, but I am picking Cincy because their bullpen is pitching much better than the Cards RIGHT NOW. And at this stage of the season, in a close race numbers don't mean anything. Which team is getting the outs is what matter.
Total Score
Cincy-5
Stl- 4
That’s the bottom line folks. Cincy right now just has a few better supporting pieces to aid their mashers. When it comes to offense the Cardinals really only have Pujols and Holliday and some gritty guys that play the game right (mostly) but really don't have much in the way of good offensive production. Cincy trots out more guys that can make a difference in the game, and its showing in the Win-loss record.
Also, lets be honest about the Cardinals club house. They have some issues right now. Brendan Ryan is not meshing well with the team all the time, and this time of year is when his made for TV goofiness really begins to grate. Also, Colby Rasmus and his attitude also strains the situation, especially when his dad is involved. Its not that the Cardinals don't want to win, its just that they have a pretty damn good team to go up against.
First lets actually consider the issue of talent. Perhaps its best to look at this in a position by position break down.
Catcher
STL- Yadier Molina
CIN- Ryan Hannigan, Ramon Hernandez
WIN- CINCY
Yadier is unquestionably the best and toughest defensive catcher around. He can absolutely control the running game, but he is having a terrible year at the plate. Hannigan can also really throw, but this duo is also knocking the ball already quite successfully. If this was last year, Yadier wins this, but as much as I respect Yadier, he is just to banged up and tired to be much of a hitter.
First Base
Stl- Albert the Great
Cincy- Joey Votto
WIN- STL
Albert is going to win this, no matter who is going against him. But frankly, at this point your basically comparing the two best hitters in the National League, and it says a lot about Votto that this is a close match. You gotta be proud of yourself when your numbers are just as good as Alberts.
Second Base
Stl- Skippy Schumaker
Cincy- Brandon Phillips
WIN- CINCY
This isn't really even close. Brandon Phillips is clearly a better player than Skippy, even though he is a jerk, and bad in the clubhouse. Phillips is an excellent defender and has an .801 OPS compared to Skippy's .680 OPS and suspect D.
Shortstop
Stl- Brendan Ryan
Cincy- Orlando Cabrera
WIN-TIE
This one really is a toss up. Brendan Ryan is a terrible hitter right now, but Orlando Cabrera is really just a ton better. He is better, but he is still pretty bad overall. However, they are both good defensive shortstops, although I suspect Cabrera's resurgence in the numbers is somewhat due to Rolen being next to him. Even with that resurgence, Cabrera's UZR is an 8 and Ryan's is a 15. Ryan is truly an elite defensive shortstop, even though he is kind of annoying twit. His defensive value is enough that it makes it at least a tie.
Third Base
STL- Pedro Feliz, I guess.
Cincy- Scott Rolen
WIN- CINCY
Scott Rolen hands down. One of the greatest defensive third basemen of all time and he is having a good year with the stick as well, where as the Cardinals are so weak at third that they improved at the position by trading for the worst regular position player in the National League.
Rightfield
Stl- John Jay
Cincy-Jay Bruce
WIN-Cincy
Jay Bruce is not my kind of player, but he has big time power and a silly good arm. But honestly, if John Jay had more at bats, he would actually win this category. He just has a limited sample, and more than likely pitchers are going to figure him out a bit. However, he is a smart kid that is willing to adjust to what is needed in the game. Frankly, I like him better than Colby Rasmus.
Centerfielder
Stl- Colby Rasmus
Cincy- Drew Stubbs
WIN-STL
I don't really like either of these players. Both are high draft picks, both are incredibly questionable defensively in center field, a both are playing beneath what they were projected to. Both make lots of rookie mistakes and come up empty against good pitching more often than not. However, Colby Rasmus is having a better year than Stubbs, therefore he wins this category.
Leftfield
STL- Matt Holliday
Cincy-Johnny Gomes
WIN- STL
Gomes can absolutely crush a fastball as hard and as fast as anybody in baseball. Of course he doesn't do so well with breaking balls, so of course he doesn't get many of those fastballs to crush. Holliday is an all-star type hitter and he wins this category pretty handedly.
Starting Pitching
STL- Waino, Carp, Garcia, Westbrook, and Lohse.
Cincy-Arroyo, Harang, Leake, Cueto
WIN- STL
The Cardinals legitimately have one of the best starting staffs in baseball, top 4 at the very least. That’s even with throwing a bag of peanuts every fifth day. Cincy has some serviceable guys, but they just don’t have the same kind of shutdownness. Of course that doesn't matter if your offense doesn't score any runs.
Bullpen
Win-CINCY
The numbers show that the Cardinals bullpen is better than Cincy, but I am picking Cincy because their bullpen is pitching much better than the Cards RIGHT NOW. And at this stage of the season, in a close race numbers don't mean anything. Which team is getting the outs is what matter.
Total Score
Cincy-5
Stl- 4
That’s the bottom line folks. Cincy right now just has a few better supporting pieces to aid their mashers. When it comes to offense the Cardinals really only have Pujols and Holliday and some gritty guys that play the game right (mostly) but really don't have much in the way of good offensive production. Cincy trots out more guys that can make a difference in the game, and its showing in the Win-loss record.
Also, lets be honest about the Cardinals club house. They have some issues right now. Brendan Ryan is not meshing well with the team all the time, and this time of year is when his made for TV goofiness really begins to grate. Also, Colby Rasmus and his attitude also strains the situation, especially when his dad is involved. Its not that the Cardinals don't want to win, its just that they have a pretty damn good team to go up against.
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