Monday, December 12, 2011

The Skinny on Phat Albert!

In the aftermath of Albertgeddon fans have been reacting with all the emotional aplomb that one would expect when a team loses an icon. There hasn't been much in way of logical thinking. Sadly, the reaction from the blogosphere from guys that are supposed to more objective has been just as reactionary. People are all bitter anger right now. Mostly they are saying he is a sellout and that he just ran for the money, or, they just respond with a "we didn't need him anyway." The truth is most of the people that are judging him have not been following the behind the scenes machinations that led to this situation. This was not something that came about his recently, its been two years in the making, and honestly, all signs pointed to Albert leaving.

Firstly, to clear up a few things, Albert is a bit surly. A very good human being that is incredibly selfless in a lot of ways, a great cheerleader for his team, a great family man, and really, a decent human being. There aren't many people that can say that, but the fact is he is really just sort of a reserved introverted personality type off the baseball field. He has had a tumultuous time with the media in St. Louis, bu frankly, he has handled the somewhat antagonistic media in St. Louis (i.e. Joe Strauss, Bernie Miklasz) much better than I ever would. None of this should detract from the fact he does more humanitarian actions a year than most players do in a career. All of that being said, that means his interactions with people have not been all sugar and spice. Particularly, his relationship with the front office, particularly with Mozeliak, (Mo) has been degrading at a steady pace. Mo is also kind of a jerk, actually, he is a complete jerk, and he has been trying to increase his day to day control over the team. That was mitigated by the fact that Tony Larussa was the manager and nobody meddles with him without getting an earful. But Tony retired, and Mo got to handpick his staff. This would give him much more control over day to day baseball operations. I think this factored heavily into Albert's decision to move on.

Secondly, Albert was hurt, and I really do mean hurt, (Joe Strauss mentioned that it seemed truly genuine. As he is a hardass cynic, it means a lot coming from him) by the offer the Cardinals made before the season. There is no question that that offer was not remotely a fair offer. It wasn't even a fair offer with him giving the hometown discount. It was, frankly, a bit of a slap in the face to him. A credit to Pujols is that where as a lot of players would have let this bother him, he just shut up and played.

Thirdly, Pujols (and Deidre, she had a lot of influence on his decision) Pujols wanted ten years on the contract more than he wanted the money. That was something he just really cared about, as well as a no-trade clause. Also, he wanted a personal service contract on top of it. Mo refused to bend on any of this. They could have resigned him. Honestly, the could have easily resigned him. I cannot be convinced that a personal service contract with a team icon is an onerous demand. My conclusion from all of the evidence is this. The Cardinals DID NOT WANT PUJOLS BACK.

I am sure some of you are saying, "Why Justin, why would you say a thing like that?" Well, since you asked, I will tell you why. There are several factors that kept the Cardinals from getting him. The first of these is that they don't need to pay a contract in any where near the range Pujols DESERVED. Those type of contracts, for any player, really on belong on teams that can field upwards of a 150 mil payroll. The Cardinals, as of yet, cannot field a payroll that high. It would hamstring financial to the point where it would be hard for them to be competitive at times. And here are some more harsh facts. Albert is looking like he is an old 31. No, I am not saying he is older than 31, just that his body has been through a lot. The past 4 seasons he has looked like he is walking on glass. His legs aren't healthy, and that is not likely to change over a ten year contract. Its a miracle that his right elbow hasn't already blown out as the ligament there is as thin as my savings account. He has played 11 seasons and rarely missed any games. That is a lot of wear and tear on his body. I thoroughly believe that a body has an odometer, and it can only play so many games, regardless of their age and he has not only played a lot games, and a ton more playoff games, but he runs the bases like his hair is on fire and plays hard everyday. He plays through all of this injuries, and in the long run, I think that will shorten his career. Over ten years, he will break down, and there is absolutely no chance that he will be the same player he is now over the last 4 seasons of that contract. The Cardinals new, and the Angels know, they are getting probably six good seasons out of Pujols, anything over than that is a bonus. The Cardinals just weren't willing to do that.

Of course this is mostly speculation, but logically that is how it will go. Maybe Pujols will have a career in Anaheim to match that in St. Louis, MVP's, batting titles, gold gloves, and multiple world series appearances, but betting on that is an enormous gamble, the Cardinals just weren't willing to make that gamble. And that was the right call.

This was a situation where Albert both absolutely deserves to get paid, and it was absolutely a bad idea to do it. I for one, wish the best to Albert, it has been a pleasure to watch him play this years. But now I am excited to see in what direction the Cardinals are going. It is not like they have a bad team, Albert actually was their third best offensive player last season, and they are going to be just fine. In fact, I think they will win the division, and have a better chance of winning than they did in 2011.

On a side note, I have no problem with players getting paid. They earn it. They work hard. They work harder than anybody not a ball player could possibly imagine. They work harder in one year than I have worked in grad school plus law school. They earn there money and pay for it the rest of their lives with pain. If someone is offering the money its ridiculous to ridicule the player for taking it. And those of you who say the old days were different, then I want to know which era you are talking about. Read the biographies, the players going back to 1900 have always been concerned with their earnings, as they should be. Its a business, it always has been. We love capitalism, but if you are ballplayer, suddenly we don't love it. I don't begrudge then. Albert gets more money for his charities, and more money to secure his children and grand children are taken care of. I can't fault anyone, particularly a someone who gives back, for that.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Tony Larussa's Baseball Obituary Part 1

I had been working on a big long blog post during the entirety of the playoffs and had planned on posting it after the World Series. However, the retiring of Tony LaRussa kind of made my finishing remarks on that flit right out of my mind and instead here I am writing a post about him and his retirement. Honestly, his retirement should not come as any surprise really. He has been waffling on the edge of retirement since the 2006 championship. I think each year it just seemed like a year that he didn't want to end on since then. 2007 was a year with a subpar team and a non-playoff finish. 2008 was a frustrating year where they finished outside the playoffs and he spent the last part of the year pressing for improvement to the bullpen, Mo held part and Tony saw lots of cheap relievers trade teams, any one of which literally might have got them in the playoffs. 2009 was a year Mo made big moves, yet they flopped in the first round of the playoffs while being a favorite. 2010 was a disappointing year, finishing five back from the Reds, while Tony spent all year trying to jumpstart an anemic offense and piece together a rotation that was really only 2.5 pitchers deep. But 2011, that is a different story altogether. 2011 was a year any manager in baseball history could retire after and be proud. Truthfully it appears TLR has been telling management this could be it since August, but frankly, I don't know how much that means. He is apparently been doing the same thing each August for the last few years. It just so happens that this time he meant it. It, however, should have been obvious that this might have been the year for him to call it quits from the way he managed the games. I had commented several times through the last month of the season and on into the post-season that TLR was managing a bit different than he normally does. He, as I like to use this as a metaphor quite often, was managing ball games like his hair was on fire. More aptly, he was managing every game like it was his last. This all makes sense now, he was managing every game like it was the last season he was ever going to manage.

While I am sitting here it occurs to me that the things I am going to write seem more like I am writing an obituary than anything else. I guess that is somewhat true, its the end of a Hall of Fame career, and a Hall of Fame career that has changed the very fabric of how baseball is played more than any other manager since John McGraw, and perhaps ever. This is not hyperbole, this is just simple baseball fact, just most don't realize it. TLR has always been different from other baseball people. He has a degree in Industrial Engineering. He also has a law degree from Florida State University and in fact he took and passed the BAR in the state of Florida. Which leads to a great quote from Dick Williams. When hearing that TLR had passed the BAR he responded, "unlike Larussa, I would never pass a bar." TLR is also a vegetarian, and spends most of his free time working with he charity, ARF. (Animal Rescue Foundation) He is just not like most old school baseball men. Can you imagine many ball players touting their vegetarian nature? Prince Fielder notwithstanding anyway, I have my doubts about the validity of that. The point of all this is that Larussa is a thinker, and has always been a thinker. He thinks about baseball the way academics obsess over their respective fields. That is not to say he is always right, he wasn't, but he was always, always thinking.

What most people don't realize about Larussa is how much he changed that game, and not for the better in some peoples estimation. Before Larussa, there was really no such thing as a one inning "closer." He took an older somewhat washed up starter named Dennis Eckersley and proclaimed that he would pitch only one inning at a time and only the 9th inning when his team had the lead. This was pretty crazy thinking at the time. There were closers or "stoppers" at the time, but they were used very differently. They were often used to close out all close games, and even a lot of games that weren't close. They were also used for two innings pretty often. The idea of setting aside a reliever purely for this specific purpose was pretty extreme. Of course, Eck went on to win a Cy Young and MVP award and now pretty much every team in baseball uses a closer in that fashion. Perhaps a bit ironically, St. Louis did not use a closer in this manner for the bulk of 2011. Larussa went on to expand on this concept. He began keeping a lefty specialist in his bullpen. A left hander that only pitched to the opposing teams best left handers late in the game. He used this to great effect with guys such as Rick Honeycutt and Tony Fossas. He then started using guys that tended to pitch only to righthanders. He is, for better or worse, the man who started the trend for games to last 3 and a half hours nightly. He began playing the matchups in an obsessive desire to always get the right pitcher facing the right hitter and he didn't care if he got the last six outs while using six different pitchers. Once again, for better or worse, this habits, although not to his extreme generally, permeated the way baseball operated in the late innings.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Mid-Season Review: Part 1 Injuries, Injuries, Injuries...What we're tied for first?

I thought I would throw a little hodpodge blog together reviewing the Cardinal's season so far since we have reached the All-Star break. A bit of a mid-season report card.

The Swapping of the Ryan's
Most of you that follow the Cardinal's realize that the Cardinals traded Brendan Ryan away and traded for Ryan Theriot over the offseason. There were many reasons for this move, which I will get to in a second, but first an assessment on whether it was an improvement purely on the stat sheet. Basically, what you get with the Ryan for Theriot swap is you trade out Ryan's fantastic defense for an upgrade with Theriot's offense. The problem is its a HUGE difference defensively and only a minor upgrade offensively. On defense, according to fangraphs.com UZR/150 stat (by far my favorite defensive metric) Theriot is pretty terrible. This of course is not a surprise. He has made quite a few big errors, and just watching the guy with the naked eye its pretty obvious he just isn't that good with the glove. He UZR/150 is -9.1. On the other side you have Brendan Ryan who is just as much positive as Theriot is negative with a +9.2. That's actually a little less than what he normally puts up, but still proves that Ryan really is a top notch defensive shortstop. All in all, Theriot is only barely showing up with 0.3 WAR (wins above replacement player) while Brendan Ryan is rocking a WAR of 1.5. This is a pretty definitive metric for this sort of comparison. Brendan Ryan is clearly a better player on the field than Ryan Theriot this year, and from a stats sheet point of view its been a bit of a failure. But is it really a failure? Brendan Ryan, to put it bluntly, was traded because he is a jerk. Not really a Barry Bonds/Manny Ramirez jerk, just a guy that never really aged past 14 kind of jerk. He was incredibly hyper, flighty, and generally grated on the nerves of all of his pitchers, and more importantly the manager and coaching staff. Essentially he was really bad for the clubhouse, so they decided to move him on, despite being a tremendous defensive talent. Theriot on the other hand, is loved in the clubhouse. He is funny, and although a scrappy player, helps keep it loose. A problem the stoic, businesslike Cardinals of last year had a problem with. Overall, despite the differences on the stats, the Cardinals are still doing better at short this year compared to last. They can always bring in Punto as a defensive replacement. That guy can really pick it.

The Puma Prance
There were a lot of questions about whether the Cardinals signing of Lance Berkman would work out for them. Now the only bad thing is they only signed him for one year. Berkman was voted an All-Star starter this year and in some weeks of the young season he alone kept the Cardinals offense afloat. He is having a pretty monster campaign so far. .290 .404 .602 gets the job done for any team in baseball and the Cardinals are lucky to have him. His decision to sign with the Cardinals hasn't been without controversy on his part as well. The Houston fans were not particularly gracious about the fact he signed with their biggest rival. (To Houston fans minds anyway, although Cardinals fans generally don't share that sentiment) And Bitter Milo Hamilton stirred up a pot of ill will when Berkman made his first appearance at Minute Maid this year. (Bitter should officially become a part of his name) Through it all Berkman held himself as a classy professional and the Cardinals are lucky to have Berkman this year, not only on the field, but in the clubhouse as well.

That big hole in the lineup where ever Rasmus is Batting
Rasmus has been terrible this year at the plate. Oh, his number look average, but that is only because he got off to a hot start. In his last 200 bats he has been putrid, smelly, foul, an easy out, lost at the plate, and a complete waste of carbon. Not only that, he is STILL playing a terrible centerfield. His uzr/150 is a -10, plus just watching him play, he just isn't a good fielder. He makes a lot of simple mistakes, and never learns from them. I won't beat around the bush, I am NOT a fan of Colby Rasmus. I thought they should have traded him during the offseason when he had his maximum trade value before it started to diminish. The problem with Rasmus is probably mostly in his head. He has the tools to be a great player, the question is does he have the brain. Right now, even with the immense potential he just isn't worth the trouble. He is dependent on his father, Tony Rasmus, to be his "hitting coach" and he has caused a lot of trouble with the team by bad mouthing and saying stuff to the media that he shouldn't. At the end of the day you have a grown man that is apparently not a hard worker, not mature, dependent on his father, and honestly, just not a very bright person. If Rasmus wants to succeed for the Cardinals its time for him to grow up and cut the training wheels off, or its time to send him down or trade him, and let John Jay have a chance. (Although despite what a lot of fans think, he is not a significantly better hitter or fielder)